Product Name: The Real Animal.
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Louisville last year averaged 444-yards per game offensively and they had four very productive players in QB Cunningham, RB Hawkins, and gifted wide receivers Atwell and Fitzpatrick. But three of those four have moved on and only QB Cunningham remains but he’s prone to turnovers with 12 interceptions and three fumbles last season. You can’t dismiss Louisville’s 0-5 road record last year either and that included a 48-27 loss at Georgia Tech and a 31-17 defeat at Virginia. The Ole Miss defense last year was ravaged by top-caliber SEC opponents giving up an average of 38.3 points per game before beating Indiana 26-20 in the Outback Bowl. They return 17 starters and QB Matt Corral completed 71 percent with a 29-14 ratio. So he too is prone to miscues and enters this season losing his top two receivers in Moore and Yeboah. But overall I thought the Louisville defense held their ground last year allowing 26.6 per game and had a shutout of Syracuse while limited Wake Forest to 21 and Notre Dame to 12 at South Bend. The one take I did have about Louisville’s offense is they are significantly more efficient at home than on the road. Last year just 98 points in five road games while scoring 227 points in six home games. I really don’t trust either of these mistake-prone quarterbacks and both teams have lot a ton of offensive firepower. I’ll go ‘UNDER’ 75 as a 3* regular with Louisville returning eight defensive linemen with experience while the Ole Miss defense has only one direction to go. Kiffin with Covid could stall the Ole Miss offense as well. In Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Miami of Florida last year lost to Clemson 42-17 and North Carolina 62-26 (778 yards allowed). They gave up 37 and lost to Oklahoma State in the Cheeze-It Bowl. Does anybody really believe they can play with Alabama in Atlanta? Not me. Not many better than Coach Saban with time to prepare. Miami QB King is coming off knee surgery. Who knows his stability and he will be facing a very-experienced Alabama defense. Less than two years ago Miami lost to Florida International and Duke in consecutive weeks. Be serious. If anybody can replace six offensive starters in the first round of the NFL draft it’s Nick. The Bryce Young era starts out with another (ho-hum) blowout in Atlanta. Seems like we’ve been here before.
Analysis of 4* Baylor +4 1/2, 4* ‘UNDER’ 159, and 3* Baylor +175 ML on 4/5/2021
On Saturday it looked like night and day defensively between these two teams. Baylor was in the face of every Houston Cougar and played smothering defense throughout. Gonzaga allowed UCLA countless wide-open shots and the Bruins, who hit 44 percent from the field throughout their first five games in the dance (nice sample size) would shoot 57.6% against the Zags. Of course you could also say UCLA played out of their minds on Saturday and still lost! It’s been a span of eight games since anybody shot better than 48 percent against Baylor. It’s been a span of six games since Baylor lost the turnover war and is +43 in that span. That’s incredible. Gonzaga is the #1 scoring team in the country averaging 91.6 points per game. Baylor has yielded 63 or less in 4/5 NCAA Tournament games so far. The problem for Gonzaga is while there’s a huge disparity on defense, Baylor is also the #3 scoring team in the nation and #1 in three-point shooting hitting at a 41 percent team clip, which is phenomenal. Gonzaga was #59 in three-point shooting and were only 7-of-21 on Saturday. They were only 12-of-20 from the free-throw shooting line. I kind of equate Saturday’s UCLA/Gonzaga game to a great heavyweight fight. Both teams threw everything they had and it certainly will go down as one of the greatest games/fights ever. But could Gonzaga show some fatigue from that game? Coach Few has been here before but he’s never won and I thought about that often on Saturday when the Zags barely beat a #11 seed. Baylor seems a little more battle-tested and fresher right now, especially on the defensive end. I was blown away how effective Baylor was on both ends of the floor against a very good Houston squad, who entered #2 in the country in points allowed this year behind Loyola-Illinois. The Bears don’t beat themselves either with turnovers. They’ve had just 28 turnovers combined in their last four games. Over the same span, Gonzaga’s had 45 miscues. I think it’s a very bad sign for Gonzaga to struggle with a #11 seed as a 14-point favorite. I’ll grab the points with Baylor, who I think is more than capable of winning outright. But again college kids have played so inconsistently throughout the season this year because of distractions so anything is possible. Remember UCLA went from a 51-49 ugly win hitting 38.9% against Michigan to hit 57.6% and score 81-points in regulation against the #1 team in the nation. That still makes zero sense to be. FYI: Tonight is the first time Baylor has been an underdog this season. Their cheapest price was -3 1/2 @ West Virginia. On Saturday Baylor scored the most points against Houston in one half this year (45) and held the Cougars to the fewest in one half (20).
In terms of the total, I doubt Gonzaga shoots anywhere near the 58.7 percent they made from the field against UCLA. But at the same time, Coach Few has to know his team has to tighten up defensively to beat Baylor. The Zags, in my opinion, were lazy on Saturday night defensively giving the Bruins way too many wide-open looks. There were 130 teams in the NCAA that scored more points than the Bruins did this year on a per-game average. That’s hard to fathom if you watched the Final Four. There were times of the game I swear that neither team could miss and the Bruins seemed to either convert with a made field goal or get fouled virtually every time down the court in the 2nd half. Gonzaga has to be taking the mindset they have to play better defense tonight and good teams usually do following an embarrassing effort defensively. Baylor also shot lights out against Houston and let’s not forget the Cougars were #2 in the nation allowing 58.2 points per game behind Loyola-Chicago. There are currently 137 teams in the country that play better defense than Gonzaga in terms of points per game. 48 for Baylor. That’s kind of shocking for the #1 team in the nation and considering the amount of feeble opponents they play in the Big West twice this year. I’m going ‘UNDER’ this total. Obviously this number was going to be inflated after watching Gonzaga and UCLA and the way Baylor performed offensively against Houston. But both teams have to averaged 40-points per half for this game to go ‘OVER’ providing no overtime. That’s a ton. Plus it’s not like Gonzaga tries to beat you with non-stop three-point shooting. Baylor looks awfully quick to get beat off the dribble. Championship game totals are always set high. I’ll go low. I just can’t see both of these teams hitting 53 percent or better and that’s what it will take to get ‘OVER’ 159.
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Kudos to 10* Totals Club hitting 10* on Northern Ky ‘OVER’ 129 on Tuesday
10* Totals Club now 42-25 w/ all NCAA Totals. 4-1 last five rated 10
Analysis of 5* Duquesne +6 on the buy Tuesday:
In their last eight games since January 26th, Duquesne has only lost one game by more than three points and that was to mighty Dayton by 10 on the road. The Dukes are 20-8 overall, 10-5 on the road, and 10-6 in league play. This has been their best season in a number of years. They take on VCU who has lost outright in 5/6 and really struggling offensively failing to exceed 62-points in 4/5. I can’t say with any conviction the Dukes are a defensive juggernaut but they can score producing 67 or more in 8/9 and reaching the 80-point plateau in four of them. VCU has been a solid go-against all season with a 10-19 spread ledger and 3-12 ATS on the season after playing one or more consecutive ‘UNDERS’. I think the Dukes stay competitive tonight. What’s remarkable about VCU is they only have one healthy double-digit scorer in forward Marcus Santos-Silva at 12.4 points per game. 2nd-leading scorer, guard De’Riante Jenkins at 10.7 per game, is out indefinitely with ‘personal’ reasons. Third-leading scorer, guard Marcus Evans at 9.9 a game, is out with a knee injury he sustained on 2/24. Duquesne has five starters that average between 14-4 and 9.0 points per game and all are healthy including a senior and three juniors. Duquesne has already had a nice 82-68 road win at St. Louis, where VCU lost on 2/21 by a 80-62 count. The Rams are struggling without their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers and without many options offensively. I feel like I have the better team catching points and love the idea of +6 on the buy.
Analysis of 4 1/2* Arkansas ‘OVER’ 154 1/2 on Wednesday:
I can’t imagine seeing any defense tonight for LSU and Arkansas. The Razorbacks are an incredible 12-1 ‘OVER’ in their last 13 games. I projected this total to be in the low 160’s so there is some value. LSU had a 7-game ‘OVER’ streak snapped by lackadaisical Texas A&M in their last game. But consider this: The last meeting between these two teams produced a 79-77 final and LSU shot only 40.9 percent from the floor including 4-of-15 from beyond the arc (26%) and missed seven free throws (21-of-28). In the prior two meetings before that the final scores were 90-89 and 94-88. Arkansas is 6-0 ‘OVER’ off a road loss and got beat at Georgia on Saturday. The Hogs are 9-0 ‘OVER’ this season revenging a loss in which they scored 75 or more points. LSU 11-2 ‘OVER’ on the road this season plus 22-10 ‘OVER’ in the role of an underdog the past three years.
Maingate Group now 26-11 w/ 25* or higher since Auburn beat Alabama on November 30th
16-3 Football/10-8 NCAA Hoops w/ all 25* or higher since 11/30
Animal 38-21-1 NCAA Majors last 40 days in 2019 (see list below)
Animal 64-43 Hoop Majors from Feb 1st thru Title Game in 2018
Animal 61-34 NCAA 5*’s last 7 years
Service plays in RED 46-24-4 ATS last 26 days of College Hoops in 2018 on MC.
Maingate 21-0-1 from March 7th thru NCAA Title game 25*/15* plays in 2018!
Maingate Group 10-8 so far in NCAA Hoop 25* plays
Since November 30th when Maingate had 35* Auburn over Alabama as Game of the Year now 16-3 w/ 35* and 25* plays and 10-8 w/ NCAA Hoop 25* plays
1/19: 25* SF 49ers -8…..37-20….. WIN
1/12: 25* Green Bay -4…..28-23…..WIN
1/5: 25* Seattle/Philly ‘UNDER’ 45….17-9….WIN
1/4: 25* New England ‘OVER’ 45….21-13….LOSS
1/1: 25* Baylor +4 1/2….14-26…..LOSS
12/29: 25* SF 49ers -3….26-21….WIN
12/28: 25* Clemson -2 1/2….29-23…WIN
12/27: 25* Air Force -2 1/2….31-21….WIN
12/24: 25* BYU -2…34-38….LOSS
12/22: 25* KC -6……26-3….WIN
12/21: 25* SF/Rams ‘OVER’ 45….34-31….WIN
12/15: 25* Vikings/Chargers ‘OVER’ 45….39-10….WIN
12/14: 25* Kansas -23…NCAA Hoops..98-57…WIN
12/12: 25* Baltimore ‘OVER’ 23 1st half…21-7 @ half….WIN
12/11: 25* LA Chargers -3….45-10…..WIN
12/10: 35* Clemson -28 1/2…62-17….WIN
12/2: 25* Seattle -2 1/2…37-30….WIN
12/1: 25* Houston Texans +3 1/2……28-22…..WIN
11/30: 35* Auburn +3 1/2..48-45…WIN
Remember guys, Maingate Group is the service that hit 21 straight in March Madness two years ago
10* Totals Club now 12-5 last 17 rated w/ LSU/Clemson ‘OVER’ in title game
2/2: 10* SF/KC ‘OVER’ 53……..31-20…..LOSS
1/13: 10* Clemson/LSU ‘OVER’ 65 1/2…..42-25….WIN
1/2: 10* Cincinnati/BC ‘OVER’ 53….38-6….LOSS
12/29: 10* New England/Miami ‘OVER’ 45….27-24….WIN
12/28: 10* LSU/Okla ‘OVER’ 76….63-28….WIN
12/26: 10* Pittsburgh Univ ‘OVER’ 49….34-30….WIN
12/22: 10* Baltimore ‘OVER’ 49. 31-15….LOSS
12/21: 10* New England ‘OVER’ 37…24-17…34-31….WIN
12/16: 10* New Orleans ‘OVER’ 48 1/2….34-7…LOSS
12/15: 10* Pittsburgh ‘UNDER’ 37…..17-10….WIN
12/8: 10* New England ‘UNDER’ 49….23-16…..WIN
12/7: 10* Clemson ‘OVER’ 56….62-17….WIN
12/6: 10* Oregon ‘OVER’ 45 1/2….37-15….WIN
12/1: 10* NY Jets ‘OVER’ 42 1/2….22-6….LOSS
11/30: 10* Wyoming ‘UNDER’ 41 1/2…..17-7….WIN
11/29: 10* Buffalo Univ ‘OVER’ 53 1/2….49-30….WIN
11/28: 10* Dallas ‘UNDER’ 47…..26-15….WIN
Animal 38-21-1 last 40 Days w/ NCAA Majors missing Texas Tech in OT Monday
4/8: 4* Texas Tech +1 1/2 Loss
4/6: 5* Auburn/UVA ‘OVER’ 132 Loss
4/5: 4* Liscomb +2 Loss
4/2: 4* Lipscomb -1 WIN
3/31: 4* Ky ‘OVER’ 142 1/2 WIN
3/30: 4* Gonzaga ‘OVER’ 136 1/2 WIN
3/29: 4* Duke ‘OVER’ 143 WIN
3/29: 4 1/2* UNC -5 1/2 Loss
3/28: 4* Oregon +8 1/2 WIN
3/26: 4 1/2* Wichita State +4 1/2 WIN
3/25: 4* West Va -10 Loss
3/24: 4* Houston -6 WIN
3/23 4 1/2* Villanova +3 1/2 Loss
3/23: 4* Kentucky -5 WIN
3/22: 4 1/2* Wisconsin ‘OVER’ 116 1/2 WIN
3/21: 4* Gonzaga ‘OVER’ 152 Loss
3/21: 4* Belmont +3 WIN
3/21: 4* Auburn -5 1/2 Loss
3/20: 4* Alabama ‘UNDER’ 144 Loss thanks to OT
3/19: 4 1/2* Hofstra +9 WIN
3/19: 4* Belmont -3 WIN
3/17: 4 1/2* Auburn/Tenn ‘OVER’ 144: WIN
3/16: 4 1/2* Wichita State +5 1/2 WIN
3/16: 4* Kentucky -1 1/2 Lose
3/15: 4* Xavier +7 1/2 WIN
3/15: 4* South Carolina +8 Loss by 9
3/15: 4* St Bonaventure ‘UNDER’ 130 WIN
3/14: 4* Wichita State -11 WIN
3/14: 4* Duquesne +2 Loss
3/14: 4* Fla State +1 WIN
3/13: 4* Texas A&M -3 1/2 WIN
3/13: 4* Air Force -11 WIN
3/12: 4 1/2* Gonzaga -8 1st half/-14 game (split action). Loss
3/12: 4* Georgia Tech +2 Loss
3/11: 4* Hofstra ‘OVER’ 147 WIN
3/11: 4* Hofstra -10 1/2 Loss
3/10: 4* Penn State -8 WIN
3/9: 4* Washington -2 in the 1st half. Loss
3/9: 4 1/2* Ky ‘OVER’ 128. Loss
3/9: 4* Boston College +3 1/2 Loss
3/8: 4* Drake ‘UNDER’ 140. Push. 86 in 2nd half after 54 in 1st half
3/7: 4 1/2* Houston -12 1/2 Loss by 1.5 points
3/6: 4* Clemson ‘UNDER’ 133 WIN
3/6: 4* Dayton -6 1/2 1st half WIN
3/5: 4* Miami Ohio/Kent ‘UNDER’ 144 WIN
3/5: 4* Wisconsin-Green Bay -3 WIN
3/3: 4* Texas Tech -4 1/2 1st half WIN
3/2: 4 1/2* South Florida +4 WIN
3/2: 4* Stanford +1 1/2 WIN
3/1: 4 1/2* Penn State +6 1/2 WIN
3/1: 4* Houston ‘OVER’ 133 1/2 Lose by 1/2-point
3/1: 4* Utah State +1 WIN
2/27: 4* Towson State +3 WIN
2/26: 4* Northern Iowa +1 1/2 WIN
2/26: 4* Nevada ‘OVER’ 152 1/2 WIN
The Animal has flat out owned Super Bowls:
Animal 13-3 the last eight years w/ Super Bowl sides & totals.
Animal 64-43 Hoop Majors from Feb 1st thru Title Game
Animal 61-34 NCAA 5*’s last 3 years
Service plays in RED 46-24-4 ATS last 26 days of College Hoops in 2018.
Modified Consensus is flat out scary w/ Big plays in RED:
158-103 Hoops as of 2/27/2019
Bowl Service Plays in RED finish 33-16 on season w/ 10* Totals Club hitting 10* on Clemson ‘OVER’
December 31st, 2018. A day that will live in infamy in the Consensus Biz!
Service plays in RED finish 16-6 on New Years Eve & New Years Day combined. That’s 33-16 in all Bowls in RED this postseason!
& what a football season J.J. is having. 86-48 in NCAA Football including 10-4 in Bowls!
HOOPS, HOOPS, HOOPS 2018 recap:
Maingate 21-0-1 from March 7th thru NCAA Title game 25*/15* plays
Animal 64-43 Hoop Majors from Feb 1st thru Title Game
Animal 61-34 NCAA 5*’s last 3 years
Service plays in RED 46-24-4 ATS last 26 days of College Hoops in 2018
Any questions contact Mark @ animalsports@msn.com
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Analysis of Warriors -4 in NBA finale:
I didn’t want to lay double-digits with Golden State in the first two games and split. Then in game #3 my gut told me not to trust the Cavaliers over four quarters and use them early. Unfortunately they miraculously blew an eight-point lead with two minutes to go in the first quarter @ -1 and the end result was a push and naturally covered the first half. As a buddy who is an on-line oddsmaker said “it’s amazing how much respect a home team gets when trailing 2-0” referring to the fact the Cavs were actually favored in the first quarter and pick’em in the first half in game #3 despite being an underdog in the game of more than three-points. Needless to say, quite unusual, and only in the playoffs. Now another strange intangible tonight. For the first time in this series the two teams play with just one day off so depth may play a factor and the return of Andre Iguodala to the lineup is obviously huge. In addition I thought Cleveland wasted terrific games by Kevin Love and Rodney Hood, although despite his scoring, Hood was -12 when in the game (worst on the team). LeBron spoke yesterday about the IQ of Golden State and I would concur. Having a guy like Iguodala back makes a significant impact. He was +14 in game #3. Golden State won by eight points despite Curry and Thompson a combined 7-of-27 for 25.9 percent. I doubt that happens again. LeBron did everything he could do to get others involved and I thought he had terrific help in game #3. But it still didn’t matter. Now Golden State is a game away from accomplishing something unique in this rivalry: a four-game sweep in the finals. That should be incentive tonight and Durant sure did have that look in his eye of an assassin ready to finish the job. I figured if the Cavaliers had any fight left it would have showed up in game #3 and it did for all but the final two minutes before talent prevailed as usual. I wonder how many Cavaliers tonight really want to extend this series and travel back to the bay area for a game #5. LeBron played all but 70 seconds of game #3. How fatigued must he be playing on one day of rest with his three-point shot abandoning his arsenal on Wednesday night. Curry hit nine three-pointers in game #2 and then was 1-for-10 from beyond the arc two nights ago. Yet the Warriors still beat the Cavaliers for the 10th time in the last 11 meetings. I know Cleveland is 7-2 in elimination games since 2015 and that includes three wins in these playoffs. Last year Cleveland forced a fifth game in this exact same scenario and hit 24 three-point shots in game #4. Golden State will undoubtedly be a double-digit favorite in game #5 should it be necessary and since I have yet to take them this series, I’ll back them tonight at this discounted price and figure while it won’t be easy, talent should once again prevail in the end. I caught -4 at 5dimes.com.
Last 3 years Animal NCAA Hoop BEST BETS rated 5* or 4 1/2* are 61-34 ATS
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Season #41 and what a journey DESPITE Covid-19!
2020 has been unusual to say the least. Our last day together was March 12th when St. John’s walked off the court at MSG at halftime in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. I would have never dreamed to be off for almost six months! A bit of history: So my 1st night in the biz was in October of 1980. Game #1 of the Kansas City/Philadelphia World Series. That was opening night for “Dial Sports” in a garage in Huntingdon Valley, PA and right outside of Philly. I was the ‘producer’ and the late Mickey Charles was the on-air host. I never would have dreamed a 21-year old kid who loved to write and gamble would still be in the business four decades later. But once I found the passion, it was unstoppable. I’m still as hungry as ever trying to find winners. Let’s make season #41 very, very special!
Mark
TheRealAnimal.com
animalsports@msn.com
2020 Modified Consensus-FOOTALL..it’s here!
New Blood on the panel this fall for Football 2020. All the details on the Premium Page. It begins on September 3rd and ends in early February with the Super Bowl. FINALLY, we get re-started after almost six weeks off because of the Pandemic! Hope to have you aboard! Mark
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